Swan×AppsFlyer
The business case · 2027 plan
Confidential

From $35M short
to $700M+.

AppsFlyer projects $575M in ARR at the end of 2026. The team's 2027 forecast is $665M without Swan and $700M+ with Swan, with GTM headcount flat.

Jeremy Hurst
Jeremy HurstVP of Autonomous GTM · Swan · Oct 21, 2026
SQOs per SDR+30.4%$6.9MBookings per AE+13.6%$6.8MNRR+4.0 pts$23.6M
Modeled annual value$37.3M$702.3M from the $665M forecast

The $37.3M planning model adds $10M to the original $27.3M estimate: 60% to NRR, 15% to AE bookings and 25% to SQOs. Applied to the $665M no-Swan forecast, it models $702.3M. These are required targets, not verified results.

012027 ending ARR

The bridge to plan.

Your number marks a figure only AppsFlyer has. The revised model retains the $585M installed base and $50M new-logo base pending confirmation. Driver lifts are required planning assumptions, not validated benchmarks. Percentages are rounded for display; calculations use unrounded values. Add your numbers →

02Where the value comes from

Three North Stars. No double counting.

SQOs per SDRNew-logo ARR
TodayYour number
With Swan+30.4%
$6.9M

A 30.4% SQO lift on the $20M SDR-sourced base (40% of $50M) adds $6.1M; applying the AE conversion lift to those added SQOs adds $0.8M.

Bookings per AENew-logo ARR
TodayYour number
With Swan+13.6%
$6.8M

A +5% relative win rate and 7.6% shorter sales cycle compound to +13.6% on the original $50M new-logo base.

NRRInstalled base
Today108%
With Swan112.0%
$23.6M

Each NRR point is worth $5.85M on the $585M base. The $23.6M target requires 4.03 points: 108.0% to 112.0%.

Each dollar is counted once. AE lift applies to the original new-logo base; SQO value includes conversion only on added SQOs. Together, new-logo ARR rises 27.4%.

Why AEs can work the extra SQOs. Swan takes the admin off their plate and is proactive about next steps, so reps hold less context in their heads and carry more opportunities.

Leadership chooses how to use the lift: more output from the same team, or the plan with fewer hires.

03How Swan moves revenue

Swan moves the inputs. The inputs move the outputs.

Rep productivity here means dollars per rep, not hours saved. Swan makes every rep do the right thing, on the right account, at the right time, and never miss the move that matters. The stages compound: more SQOs give AEs more to convert, and better conversion applies to every one of them.

  1. 1SDR & Marketing+30.4%
  2. 2Sales+13.6%
  3. 3Customer Success+4.0 pts
1
SDR & Marketing

SQOs per SDR +30.4%

$6.9M18% of total value
SQOs per SDR = meetings booked per SDR × meeting-to-SQO conversion
DriverAppsFlyer todayRequired target
Meetings booked per SDRYour number+30.4%
Meeting-to-SQO conversionYour numberHold at or above baseline
Value40% of $50M new-logo ARR$6.9M

With conversion held, SQOs per SDR rise in line with meetings booked: +30.4%. Conversion is a guardrail: more SQOs never come at the cost of quality.

Assumes AEs can work the added SQOs, and that meeting-to-SQO conversion holds.

What Swan changes
  • Which accountsPrioritized on live intent, website, product and relationship signals.
  • WhenWorked at the moment interest peaks.
  • What the touch saysAccount-specific, built on the full account history.
Customer proofFinout
One SDR produces the output of a team of five, with inbound demand worked within minutes instead of hours.
2
Sales

Bookings per AE +13.6%

$6.8M18% of total value
Bookings per AE = deals closed per year × ACV
DriverAppsFlyer todayRequired target
Win rateYour number+5% relative
Sales cycleYour number−7.6%
ACVYour number0% in the base case. Upside through attach rate.

+5% win rate and a 7.6% shorter cycle compound to +13.6% bookings per AE (1.05 ÷ 0.924). Stage 1 adds opportunities on top.

What Swan changes
  • Every meetingWalk in prepared with the right thing to say, and leave with the right next step done.
  • Buying committeeEngage the right buyers, not just the champion.
  • Stalled dealsSpot them early and know the move.
  • OfferingWith several services, better matching of service to buyer lifts attach rate and ACV.
  • AdminCRM and account context update continuously; follow-up and next step are handled.
Customer proofUtila
Opportunities Swan is involved in convert at 3x the rate of Utila's before Swan. Reps no longer spend hours on admin, so deals keep moving.
3
Customer Success

NRR +4.0 pts

$23.6M63% of total value
Ending ARR = starting ARR × NRR + new-logo ARR
ScenarioCalculationResult
One NRR point1% of $585M$5.85M
Required target+4.03 points: 108.0% → 112.0%$23.6M
Churn reduction≈ +2.0 pts
Expansion≈ +2.0 pts

The even split is a working assumption Your number, to be replaced with AppsFlyer's actual split. The +4.03-point total is required to model $23.6M.

What Swan changes
  • ChurnAccounts audited continuously, risk flagged before renewal with the context to act.
  • ExpansionProduct and usage signals reach the CSM with outreach already drafted.
  • CoverageEvery account gets a proactive motion, not only the largest.
Customer proofElastic Path
CS moved from reactive to proactive. The team now opens every expansion conversation itself, with the full account history behind it.
04How we stand behind it

An outcome in the contract.

A directional lift on a North Star, like an ARR projection, not a clause on every driver. We set the baseline, target and terms together. Whichever part of the funnel goes first:

SDR / BDR

SQOs per SDR up % set together

AEs

Bookings per AE up % set together, through win rate and cycle length

CS

NRR up points set together on the installed base

05Your numbers

Make it AppsFlyer's case.

Every figure below sharpens the case from benchmarks to your own data. Fill in what you know, skip what you don't. Your entries save in this browser and appear throughout the page as you type.
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Only Swan sees what you send. Customer results are customer-reported.